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☆ A renowned market bear who called the dot-com bubble warns Wall Street groupthink is wrongly leading investors to abandon recession forecasts — and says a 'policy disaster' is brewing as the Fed keeps
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-18 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Various labor market indicators are also showing growing weakness in the economy, he said. Societe GeneraleNational Federation of Independent Business data shows further labor market weakness is likely to come, as small business hiring plans continue to fall. Both stats would suggest a rising unemployment rate going forward. In the meantime, the labor market has consistently proven resilient despite high interest rates, and stocks have enjoyed an eye-popping rally to new highs. Some also argue that labor market data points like the rising unemployment rate have to be shown with context.

Persons: —, Albert Edwards, didn't, Edwards, aren't, we'll, Societe Generale Edwards, Bob Elliott, groupthink Edwards, Alan Greenspan Organizations: Service, Societe Generale, Wall, Business, Societe Generale National Federation of Independent Business, ING, Generale, Unlimited Partners, Bridgewater Associates, of Labor Statistics, Tech

☆ Dollar sags as slower U.S. inflation boosts rate cut expectations
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The dollar skidded to multi-month lows on Thursday after U.S. core inflation hit its slowest in three years and retail sales turned flat, which pulled forward expectations for rate cuts in the world's biggest economy. The dollar skidded to multi-month lows on Thursday after U.S. core inflation hit its slowest in three years and retail sales turned flat, which pulled forward expectations for rate cuts in the world's biggest economy. Stocks and other risk-sensitive assets such as the Australian dollar led gains in the wake of the data release. The New Zealand dollar hit a two-month high at $0.6131. Softer-than-expected retail sales figures, which were flat last month instead of the 0.4% gain that economists had forecast, reinforced the newfound confidence in rate cuts.

Persons: Sterling, Bart Wakabayashi, China's, Bitcoin Organizations: Australian, New Zealand, U.S, State, European Central Bank Locations: Asia, Tokyo, Treasuries

☆ Treasury launches ‘Project Fortress,’ an alliance with banks against hackers
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-09 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

The new public-private partnership, dubbed Project Fortress, underscores the real danger US officials and bank executives believe cyberattacks pose to the economy. But Project Fortress is not just about playing defense. Project Fortress has been in the works for several months, with Treasury rolling out various parts of the alliance in pieces, the source said. One of the key elements of Project Fortress is the cyber hygiene tool run by the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA). The federal government has recently flexed its offensive capabilities, including ones that are part of Project Fortress.

Persons: Wally Adeyemo, Janet Yellen, Adeyemo, Jamie Dimon, Brian Moynihan, Jane Fraser, Robin Vince, ” Vince, Vince, Jerome Powell, ” Adeyemo, Sean Lyngaas Organizations: New, New York CNN, Treasury, CNN, Bank Policy, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, BNY, Washington, Industrial, Commercial Bank of China, Infrastructure Security Agency, JPMorgan Locations: New York, Washington

☆ Money market funds yielding more than 5% won’t last. Where to deploy idle cash instead
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-09 | by ( Darla Mercado | Cfp | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Money market funds' siren song has become a little louder: With the timing of Federal Reserve rate cuts shaky, yields on cash are still hot – for now. Here's how to decide where and when to redeploy some of your idle cash into fixed income. Taxes are also a key consideration as you build out your fixed income sleeve. Interest income from Treasurys, meanwhile, is subject to federal income tax but exempt from state and local taxes. A gradual entry toward fixed income You don't have to build out your fixed income allocation in one day.

Persons: Rob Williams, Charles Schwab, Ashton Lawrence, Lawrence, Williams Organizations: Mariner Wealth Advisors, Mutual Locations: Greenville , South Carolina, Treasurys, New York , New Jersey, California

☆ 10-year Treasury yield rises as investors consider remarks from Fed officials
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-09 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

U.S. Treasury yields were higher on Thursday as investors considered remarks from Federal Reserve officials, scanning them for hints about the interest rate outlook. Collins' comments echoed those made by Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin earlier in the week. More Fed officials are set to speak on Thursday and Friday. Elsewhere, the Bank of England is due to announce its latest interest rate decision on Thursday. The BoE is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged, but investors will be scanning Governor Andrew Bailey's statement for hints about a potential summer rate cut.

Persons: Susan Collins, Collins, Neel Kashkari, Tom Barkin, BoE, Andrew Bailey's Organizations: Treasury, Federal Reserve, Boston, Wednesday, Minneapolis, Richmond Fed, Fed, Bank of England

Banks jumped 0.8%, while oil and gas stocks retreated 1%. European stocks opened mixed on Thursday as global markets react to the U.S. Federal Reserve's latest monetary policy decision and a slew of corporate earnings. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said it was unlikely that the central bank's next move will be a rate hike. Asia-Pacific markets were mostly higher overnight as traders reacted to the Fed's stance, while U.S. stock futures advanced as investors looked ahead to more corporate earnings due Thursday. Dutch bank ING was 5% higher in early deals after announcing a 2.5 billion euro ($2.7 billion) share buyback.

Persons: Banks, Jerome Powell, It's, Vestas, Hugo Boss Organizations: U.S, U.S . Federal, Dow, region's, Novo Nordisk, Shell, ING, AXA, ArcelorMittal Locations: London, U.S ., Asia, Pacific, Europe

☆ Tom Lee says the bar is lower for the Fed to cut and so stocks are set to do ‘quite well’
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-02 | by ( Lisa Kailai Han | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Cracks might finally be forming in the Federal Reserve's firm hawkish stance, according to Fundstrat Global Advisors' Tom Lee. As investors expected, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged after central bank policymakers had their meeting. "That's not really an inflationary signal, so I think the bar is actually being lowered now for the Fed to cut and I think that's something many people picked up." All in all, Lee thinks there's a "good probability" that interest rates are currently at their peak. If inflation does indeed improve in the next few months and interest rates fall, he has optimistic prospects for stocks.

Persons: Tom Lee, Lee, That's, Jerome Powell, We're, Powell, there's Organizations: Fundstrat Global, Starbucks, Fed, Investors

☆ 'Basel III' bank rules could pose unexpected threat to Biden's green energy plans
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-01 | by ( Emily Wilkins | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Banks help fund the vast majority of renewable energy projects through tax equity investments, which allow the banks to benefit from federal tax credits for renewable energy. Currently, renewable energy draws $18 billion to $20 billion annually through tax equity investments, according to the American Council on Renewable Energy. "Many people joke that we're on the 'solar-coaster,'" Torres said about the ups and downs of renewable energy. The higher capital requirements for renewable energy projects in Basel III puts the regulation on a collision course with the Biden administration's push for cleaner and greener energy sources. "The clean energy industry's experience with tax equity investments does not warrant such a radical change," the group's letter read.

Persons: Julian Torres, Torres, he's, Banks, Jerome Powell, Biden, Dominic Lacy, Sean Casten Organizations: D.C, Gallaudet University, Washington , D.C, Gallaudet, Federal Reserve, FDIC, American Council, Renewable Energy, Basel III, Tesla, American Bankers Association, Bank, Institute, Clean Energy State Alliance Locations: Washington ,, Basel

☆ The Fed Tries to Steer Clear of Politics, But Election Year Is Making It Tough
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-01 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Federal Reserve officials are fiercely protective of their separation from politics, but the presidential election is putting the institution on a crash course with partisan wrangling. Fed officials set policy independently of the White House, meaning that while presidents can push for lower interest rates, they cannot force central bankers to cut borrowing costs. Incumbent politicians generally want low interest rates, which help to stoke economic growth by making borrowing cheap. But the Fed uses higher interest rates to keep inflation slow and steady — and if politicians forced to keep rates low and goose the economy all the time, it could allow those price increases to rocket out of control. Pressuring officials for lower rates was unlikely to help, administrations reasoned, and could actually backfire by prodding policymakers to keep rates higher for longer to prove that they were independent from the White House.

Organizations: Federal, White

☆ Key Fed inflation measure rose 2.8% in March from a year ago, more than expected
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-26 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Inflation showed little signs of letting up in March, with a key barometer the Federal Reserve watches closely showing that price pressures remain elevated. The personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy increased 2.8% from a year ago in March, the same as in February, the Commerce Department reported Friday. Including food and energy, the all-items PCE price gauge increased 2.7%, compared to the 2.6% estimate. The Fed targets 2% inflation, a level that core PCE has been above for the past three years. Services prices increased 0.4% on the month while goods were up 0.1%, reflecting a swing back in consumer prices as goods inflation dominated since the early days of the Covid pandemic.

Persons: Dow Jones, George Mateyo Organizations: Reserve, Commerce Department, Dow, Treasury, Key Wealth, Fed, Labor Department

☆ Europe’s Policymakers Get Ready to Lower Rates, Regardless of the Fed
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-25 | by ( Eshe Nelson | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Europe’s central bankers are trying to get out of the shadow of the United States. Now, European Central Bank policymakers are emphasizing how much the inflation problem has eased in the eurozone. All week, Europe’s policymakers reiterated their growing confidence that high inflation was dissipating in the eurozone and that their 2 percent inflation target was in sight. The E.C.B., which sets interest rates for all 20 countries that use the euro, has signaled it could cut rates at its next policy meeting in early June. “We’re clearly in a disinflation process,” said Gabriel Makhlouf, governor of Ireland’s central bank and one of the 26 members of the E.C.B.’s governing council.

Persons: “ We’re, ”, Gabriel Makhlouf Organizations: European Central Bank, International Monetary Fund, World Bank Locations: United States, Washington, Ireland’s, U.S

☆ How BlackRock’s Rick Rieder would reimagine the 60/40 portfolio with today’s higher rates
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-19 | by ( Darla Mercado | Cfp | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The balanced portfolio – which typically allocates 60% of assets toward stocks and 40% to fixed income –could use a rethink in today's higher rate environment, according to BlackRock's Rick Rieder. "For 30 years, fixed income was a hedge," said Rieder, the asset manager's global chief investment officer of fixed income, in a phone call with CNBC. A 60/30/10 split Rather than a 60/40 split toward equities and fixed income, Rieder said he would consider a 60/30/10 allocation if he had to build a balanced portfolio. That is, he'd maintain a 60% allocation toward stocks, but keep 30% of the portfolio in "higher income, shorter duration" assets. In addition to AAA-rated CLOs, Rieder also likes European investment-grade credit as a U.S. dollar investor.

Persons: BlackRock's Rick Rieder, Jerome Powell, Rieder, Jared Woodard Organizations: CNBC, Federal Reserve, AAA, Bank of, CLOs Locations: Central

☆ Middle East tensions pose the biggest threat to rate cuts, European Central Bank policymaker says
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-17 | by ( Sam Meredith | In Samuelmeredith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Tensions in the Middle East pose the biggest threat to a prospective interest rate cut from the European Central Bank, according to ECB policymaker Robert Holzmann. "At this stage, I think the biggest threat is geopolitics, because we have seen what's happened in the Middle East," Austrian central bank governor Holzmann told CNBC's Karen Tso on Wednesday. Holzmann singled out ramifications for energy prices as the single most important factor in terms of Europe's fight to tame inflation. "As summer approaches we can start reducing the level of restriction in monetary policy, provided that inflation continues to fall as projected." He recently told Reuters that the ECB could moderate rates in June, indicating a growing consensus for a near-term move.

Persons: Robert Holzmann, Holzmann, Karen Tso, policymaker Olli Rehn, Rehn Organizations: European Central Bank, ECB, International Monetary, Bank of, Brent, U.S, West Texas, Reuters Locations: Austrian, Hormuz, Iran, Israel, Russia, Ukraine, Bank of Finland, London

Alex Kraus | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesEuropean Central Bank policymaker Joachim Nagel said Wednesday that a rate cut for the institution looks increasingly likely for June, but added that certain parts of the incoming inflation data still look higher than desired. watch nowEarlier Wednesday, Mario Centeno, governor of Portugal's central bank, said it was "about time to change this monetary policy cycle." The ECB's June interest rate decision would be "very important," he said. Markets are widely pricing in the first rate cut from the ECB to take place in June. watch nowEarlier this week, ECB President Christine Lagarde said that unless there were any major shocks, the ECB was on track to cut interest rates soon.

Persons: Joachim Nagel, Alex Kraus, Central Bank policymaker Joachim Nagel, Germany's Bundesbank, Karen Tso, " Nagel, —, Mario Centeno, CNBC's Tso, Christine Lagarde, disinflation, CNBC's Sara Eisen, Robert Holzmann, Holzmann, wasn't Organizations: Deutsche Bundesbank, Bloomberg Television, Bloomberg, Getty, Central Bank, ECB Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Washington ,, Europe, Portugal's, Austrian, East

☆ Watch CNBC's full interview with German central bank chief Joachim Nagel
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-17 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with German central bank chief Joachim NagelEuropean Central Bank policymaker Joachim Nagel speaks to CNBC’s Karen Tso at the IMF Spring Meetings taking place in Washington, D.C.

Persons: Joachim Nagel, Joachim Nagel European Central Bank policymaker Joachim Nagel, Karen Tso Organizations: Joachim Nagel European Central Bank Locations: Washington ,

☆ ECB’s Holzmann says biggest threat to strategy is the geopolitical situation in the Middle East
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-17 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailECB’s Holzmann says biggest threat to strategy is the geopolitical situation in the Middle EastEuropean Central Bank policymaker Robert Holzmann, who also serves as Austria's central bank governor, says geopolitical risk is the biggest threat to the ECB’s strategy.

Persons: Holzmann, Robert Holzmann Organizations: East European Central Bank

☆ Stock futures tick higher as key March inflation report looms: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-09 | by ( Pia Singh | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Stock futures inched higher Tuesday night as investors await key U.S. inflation data that will inform the Federal Reserve's path on rate policy. During Tuesday's regular trading, investors appeared to be in a holding pattern ahead of the March consumer price index report. The CPI report, which is set to release on Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. Fed funds futures trading data suggests a 42% likelihood that the central bank will hold steady on rates in June, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. In addition to the big inflation report on Wednesday, investors are also looking forward to the meeting minutes from the Fed's gathering last month.

Persons: Dow, Dow Jones, Quincy Krosby, Krosby Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Stock, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, CPI, Traders, LPL, Delta Air Lines Locations: New York City, Quincy

☆ Credit Card Companies Are About to Invent New Fees for Consumers
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-07 | by ( Emily Stewart | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

Some of those annoying fees on your credit card may soon be getting smaller. Banks and credit-card companies are almost certainly trying to figure out where else they squeeze money out of you. The response to the interchange-fee settlement has been a bit more muted: The Electronic Payments Coalition, which represents Visa, Mastercard, and other credit-card companies, said it was OK with the swipe-fees cap. Taken together, it's clear that many companies in the credit-card business would rather not be dealing with this situation. According to the Merchants Payments Coalition, Mastercard is now planning to increase different credit card fees soon, it's "network assessment" fee.

Persons: Banks, Matt Schulz, JPMorgan Chase, Mark Elliot, Doug Kantor, Mark Mason, Rich Fairbank, We've, it's, Ira Rheingold, Amanda Jackson, Emily Stewart Organizations: Consumer Financial, Mastercard, Visa, Bank Policy Institute, Electronic Payments Coalition, UBS, JPMorgan, American Express, National Association of Convenience Stores, Merchants Payments Coalition, Capital, JPMorgan Chase, National Association of Consumer, Companies, Financial Reform, Business

☆ Surging oil prices may challenge the Federal Reserve's inflation fight
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-06 | by ( Spencer Kimball | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Mounting geopolitical tensions stemming from conflict in the Middle East and Eastern Europe have helped drive oil prices to five month highs, challenging the Federal Reserve's fight against inflation. U.S. crude oil gained 4.5% this week, touching $87 a barrel on Friday before settling at $86.91. Rising energy prices may affect the timing or magnitude of interest rate cuts, he said. The Federal Reserve is focused on bringing down core inflation, which excludes volatile energy and food prices. Escalating attacks are coming against a backdrop of an already tightening global crude market.

Persons: Brent, Bart Melek, Andy Lipow, Lipow, Bob Yawger, Yawger, Netanyahu, Manish Raj, White, Biden, John Kilduff, Kilduff, Melek, Saudi Arabia doesn't Organizations: Federal, American Automobile Association, West Texas, TD Securities, Lipow Oil Associates, Mizuho Americas, Valero, Philips, Marathon Petroleum, Velandera Energy Partners, Kyiv, JPMorgan, Financial Times, Again Capital, Bank of America, Saudi Locations: East, Eastern Europe, Iran, Israel, Ukraine, Damascus, Kyiv, Ukrainian, Russia, Saudi Arabia

☆ European stocks head for mixed open as Wall Street rally takes a breather
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-26 | by ( Holly Ellyatt | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

European markets are heading for a lackluster open Tuesday as investors continue to ponder last week's central bank policy decisions in Europe and the U.S. Regional markets had a tentative start to the new trading week Monday and the lack of momentum looks set to continue Tuesday. Today, investors in Europe, the Middle East and Africa will be keeping an eye out as Nigeria's central bank publishes its latest monetary policy decision, and as earnings come from Smiths Group, Ocado Retail, Bellway and A.G. Barr. Asia-Pacific markets were mixed Tuesday as the U.S. market took a breather after a rally sparked by optimism over the Federal Reserve's interest rate stance at its latest meeting. U.S. stock futures traded near the flatline Monday night, after the major averages took a breather from their rally.

Organizations: U.S . Regional, Smiths Group, Ocado, Federal Locations: Europe, East, Africa, Barr, Asia, Pacific, U.S

European markets had a tentative start to the new trading week Monday, as investors continued to digest a number of central bank policy decisions in Europe. The pan-European Stoxx 600 index closed 0.04% higher after finishing last week at a record high. European marketsHome improvement group Kingfisher , owner of brands such as B&Q and Screwfix, rebounded in afternoon deals to close up 2.5%. The stock dipped earlier in the session after issuing its third warning on profit in six months. The U.K.'s Direct Line meanwhile plunged 11% after Brussels-based Ageas on Friday confirmed it would not make a further offer for the fellow insurance firm.

Locations: Europe, Brussels

☆ Credit card late fees capped at $8 as part of Biden administration crackdown on junk fees
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-05 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

CNN —Federal regulators finalized a rule on Tuesday to cap most credit card late fees at $8 as part of a broader push by the Biden administration to eliminate junk fees. The new rule applies to large credit card issuers – those with more than 1 million accounts. These companies represent more than 95% of total outstanding credit card debt, according to the CFPB. It also comes as Americans continue to pile on credit card debt, which recently exceeded a record $1.1 trillion. Some borrowers, especially Millennials and those with lower incomes, have been falling behind on their credit card debt following more than two years of high inflation.

Persons: Biden, ”, Rohit Chopra, “, Greg Baer, Joe Biden, “ It’s, Chuck Bell Organizations: CNN, Consumer Financial, White, Bank Policy Institute, Council, Consumer

☆ 29-year-old was laid off from her hotel job in 2020—now she makes $125,000 working in tech, without a bachelor’s degree
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-29 | by ( Morgan Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Ayana Dunlap has been working in tech since 2020. Even though she doesn't have the job she wanted as a kid, Dunlap found a different vocation she loves: technology. Dunlap didn't consider turning her knack for computers into her career until she was laid off from her sales job in June 2020. While working there, Dunlap was tasked with helping organizations prepare to return to the office, by setting up their desktops, routers and printers on-site. Some of the skills that helped Dunlap transition into tech without a bachelor's degree included oft skills she learned while working in hotels, namely, communication and customer service.

Persons: Ayana Dunlap, Dunlap, lockdowns, doesn't, she's, Weeks, Dyanne Organizations: Bank Policy Institute, CNBC, Montgomery County Community College, Washington , D.C, Widewaters Hotel, Magna Hospitality Group, Google Locations: Washington, AskMakeIt@cnbc.com, Cheltenham , Pennsylvania, Montgomery, Blue Bell , Pennsylvania, Washington ,, D.C, Scholas, New York, Gaithersburg , Maryland, Dunlap

☆ The risk of a recession could flare up if the Fed waits too long to cut rates, top economist Mohamed El-Erian says
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-14 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

At this point, only a disorderly financial adjustment or a central bank policy mistake could tip the balance, such as if the Fed hesitates to cut rates when the time comes. AdvertisementJanuary's inflation data did give the central bank reason to hold for longer, as Tuesday's report came in hotter than investors anticipated. Failure to come through with three cuts would also be a policy mistake. Generally, the US economy is suffering a "stock problem," as the market's rally been built on excessive Fed cut expectations. Instead, the CPI data provided a wake-up call for carried-away investors, El-Erian said, which explains Tuesday's market overreaction to the report.

Persons: —, Mohamed El, Erian, they've, Dow Jones Organizations: Service, Federal, CNBC, Business, Queens ' College

☆ The number of new commercial mortgages plummeted 47% last year
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-13 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Mortgage originations in commercial real estate fell 47% through 2023, Mortgage Bankers Association said. AdvertisementMortgage originations for commercial properties dropped 47% in 2023, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported. The drawdown came as weak confidence bears down on commercial real estate. Despite these obstacles, MBA previously anticipated that commercial mortgage lending would climb into 2024, gaining 29% to an expected volume of $476 billion. Advertisement"2023 is likely to go into the record books as the slowest year for commercial real estate borrowing and lending in roughly a decade," MBA Head of Commercial Real Estate Research Jamie Woodwell said in January's report.

Persons: —, Jamie Woodwell, Woodwell, Morgan Stanley Organizations: Mortgage Bankers Association, Service, Healthcare, Real

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